Hmmm, what formula are you using for the to-hit chance? I can’t make mine work with the above numbers. I’m using this formula from the thread linked above:
To Hit = (1-(S/T))*(0.5+((L/256)*0.5)) where
S = target speed, T = tracking speed, and L = length of target
Plugging in the above tracking speeds and the speeds of the FM and MWM to solve for L with a 0.45 chance to hit, I get nonsense.
For the FM (speed 0.32), L = 0, which is obviously wrong
For the MWM (speed 0.19), L = -11.264, which is also obviously wrong
So, what’s the real length of the missile? Also, what’s the tracking speed of the scrambler?
Here’s an interesting tidbit. With cruisers, GS and PD are more effective at protecting the hull and armor than they are the shield. This is because their range barely gets outside the shield bubble. But frigates have significantly smaller shield bubbles while the improved PD has the same range as a cruiser’s. Thus, frigate PDs do a better job protecting the shield than cruiser defenses.
So, when considering improving cruiser missile defense, it seems to me that the 1st priority would be a greatly increased range, say out to 500-600. Then the defenses would have a much higher chance of stopping missiles short of the shield, thereby greatly enhancing the ship’s survivability against all other weapons in addition to missiles. Also, a longer range would allow the defenses in 1 ship to cover adjacent ships. Then you could have a small number of dedicated anti-missile support ships protecting a larger number of all-offense ships.
However, to take advantage of the longer range, the defense needs a fast weapon, either an instantaneous beam or an uber-fast missile or projectile. A high rate of fire would also be nice, to continue to protect the hull once the shields go down. This latter means there’s still a need for essentially what we already have now.
So how about this? Take the frigate’s Anti-Fighter Missile, turn it into a cruiser module, and tweak it so it will shoot at missiles. Then tweak its stats to fit the above mission. As a start (pending testing and refining), increase the speed to about 0.7, increase the rate of fire to say 600, and increase the minimum range out to about 200-250 so it has a substantial gap close to the ship. Now you have a long-range missile defense to protect the shield, which you can back up with existing close-in PD and GS. It might even be able to stop incoming missiles before they split off the decoys/MIRVs, and perhaps stop them soon enough that the enemy ship will still be recharging so can’t fire again immediately.