When looking at a policy or statistic I sometimes think: there is an effect that should work the other way!

e.g.:

“Foreign Relations” have a negative effect on “International Trade”.

(Delay is 4. My foreign relations are in the upper half of the graph and still rising for more than 4 quarters.)

Is this intended? Whats the reasoning behind it? If this is not as intended, then what is the technical reason / “bug” behind it: is the “zero-effect”-line higher than the middle of the graph? Is the actual delay longer than 4 quarters (- yes my relations WHERE bad 11 quarters ago and all the time before)?

Maybe because my Foreign Relations where bad for so long a time, that having 11 rising quarters in a row with 8 of them clearly above 50% is not enough to offset the bad effect on International trade yet? So the delay only tells about the momentum/acceleration of a policy / how long it takes to get the maximum add-on-effect, but then the accumulation of the positive effect still has to take place? But why is the graph then indicating that I already are clearly above average? I don’t get it.