TBH I’m not sure how adding random fuzziness in that instance is an improvement? Currently someone with support 49% is 100% likely to vote for the opposition (IF they vote), making that slightly fuzzy just slightly randomizes the details of the result?
I’ve found that coding this new UI has exposed a number fo issues, and made it easier for me to visualize if the sim is working as intended. I can see immediately that the impact of voters innate voting chance is way too high. I expected to see the non-voters clustered near the middle (with support hovering around 45-55%) as this is the intent (those with no strong feelings are less likely to turn out), but the weights were wrong.
I have discovered that giving innate vote chance a 40% say in the final should I vote? decision is way too high, and doesnt allow for enough sway of events. I also found that the innate vote chance is just a simple random number up to a max level of apathy for that country, which is wrong…
For example, if a country has 60% turnout, it should have 40% non voters. I currently set the innate vote chance in that country to be from 0-60%.
Actually thats mega-wrong. What it needs to be is at a level, when compensated by other factors, that results in a 60% turnout
Currently the decision to vote is
40% X innate value (which was 0-60% in my example) plus
40% X strength of feeling (how happy/sad they are in each direction) plus
20% X a motivator based on the activists in the party they lean towards, who encourage getting out the vote.
I’m currently experimenting with a change to
20% innate, 60% strength of feeling and 20% activist motivation
I havent got my head around the correct math for setting the innate value of each voter to get the hopefully eventual 60% turnout rate in an average scenario yet, but thats because I need some food and a drink now…
…actually realizing this is a vague problem, because we cant be sure of the strength of feeling or the activist motivation. But assume activist motivation (a) is 50% and strength of feeling is 50%.
turnout = (0.2 * i) + (0.6 * 0.5) + (0.2 * 0.5)
turnout = (0.2 * i) + (0.4)
so where turnout should be 60%,
0.6 = (0.2*i) + (0.4) errr…so innate turnout should be 100%? really? arrghhh…so tired.