I thought some people on here might have some interest in discussing the 2008 Presidential Election.
All the polls show Obama with a lead, although how big that lead is depends who you believe. Ofcourse a small popular vote lead can be a large electoral college lead, just have a look at this - >> electoral-vote.com/.
I think Obama has got it all sewn up. Thats based purely on the coverage of it we get in Europe, where he already being treated as the next president. I think McCain comes across as someone from the past, and negative, and Obama comes across as younger, newer, idealistic and looking to the future. That’s just the PR machine though, I have no idea what US voters really think of the policies each candidate has, but when did policies ever really seem to matter in a presidential election anyway? it’s all about TV these days
It’s really interesting. I live in one of the most liberal regions of the country (New England) and all of the people I know say that they are voting for McCain.
Do people see McCain as new? or as an extension of the current administration though? I would have thought his age was against him there.
I think this great clip with a Republican Governor on CNN illustrates just how similar the are, atleast from where many voters are standing.
I think people know that some things will be similar, some won’t in a McCain administration. I think the question people really have is who is Barack Obama. Many people like what they hear from his eloquent speeches, but you wonder what substance is there. Many Jewish voters are confused for example, about his policy on Jerusalem. He has told Jewish-Americans that he wants to see it united under Israeli rule, yet on his trip to the Middle East, he told Palestinians that it was false and that he would support a divided Jerusalem.
What is basically happening here, is that the conservatives are basically branding Obama as not an agent of change but of politics and pandering. Another example is the windfall profits tax on oil companies in the 70s. McCain is labeling it as a failed policy of the Carter administration, thus non-change.
What this election is really turning out to be, is a referendum on Obama rather than McCain vs. Obama… it’s Obama vs. Non-Obama.
Here is a market where people put money where their mouth is:
Though people say that it merely follows (instead of predicts) the outcomes, it is very close in its ‘predictions’.
Obama has a 60% chance of winning as of August 7, 2008 - according to the site. That sounds reasonable - given McCain has been making a fool of himself consistently.