Prediction time -> Gordon Brown

Surely his days are numbered? Recent poll results show his party in amazing trouble. He can’t last till the next general election surely? My money is on Milliband replacing him before the end of the Summer.
Anyone really think he will stay as Labour leader?

Based on what limited information I have from where I am, I think the answer is probably yes.

However, I’m across the pond, and haven’t followed Labour all that closely in recent times.

Amazingly I seriously think Gordon’s fate will be controlled by how long the Credit Crunch lasts, if the worst of it is over and done with soon enough then people will start to feel more comfortable and if he can stop the bleeding electorally at the next round of local elections, which will be D-Day for Gordon, since ditching him after another set of poor local elections wouldn’t make Labour look cruel (for lack of a better word).

Another key factor I think is how Boris Johnson does as Mayor Of London, if he’s outed quickly as a complete fool who can’t govern then that will wash off on Cameron rather badly.

It is true that the economy has a massive impact. If you look at election results in the past, they are almost entirely governed by how the economy is doing. The downfall of the last Conservative government was very much down to the ERM disaster. When I was studying for politics A level, I read this interesting statistic about the effect of the economy on the US Presidential Elections. I can’t remember exactly what it was now, but basically when the economy is doing badly, only once has the sitting President been re-elected, whereas when the economy is doing well, only once has the sitting President failed to be re-elected. Gordon Brown’s fate is more tied to the economy than most, having been Chancellor for ten years. When the economy was going well (which was little to do with him) he took the credit for it, even though actually he was doing a pretty poor job, selling our gold reserves at a very low price just before the value of gold shot up, wasting billions and failing to take any precautions for a future economic downturn. If he wants to be able to take full responsibility for the economy when it’s doing well, he then has to be prepared to do the same when it is doing badly.

I think that Gordon Brown will still be in place at the General Election. I’m not sure that changing the leader would help Labour. It would mean bad publicity and disruption, and then who is to say that the new leader would be any better? It’s hardly like great leaders are queuing in the wings. As I said above, Labour’s fate will be very much tied to the economy, and there’s not really a lot any Prime Minister could do about that. I don’t think that you should read too much into local election results and by-election results - I think that it is rather poor journalism for TV and newspapers to be running predictions of how many seats each party would win if the local and by-election results are replicated in the General Election. They won’t be. People have always taken these elections as an opportunity to “send a message to the Government”, but when push comes to shove, they’ll go back to Labour in the General Election.

That’s not to say that Labour can win the next General Election, however. But the truth is that I don’t think anything can save Labour in the next General Election. They will have been in power for 13 years at the next General Election, and that’s a long time for any party. After a time, people want a change. Within thirteen years, you’ve generally had enough opportunity to upset everyone. Also, the media have turned against them now. David Cameron is in exactly the same position as Tony Blair was twelve or so years ago. He doesn’t have any more idea than Tony Blair how to run the country, but it doesn’t matter, because he looks good on TV. I think that the Brown-Cameron battle has shown how important media image is these days. Cameron has it, but I don’t think that Labour have anyone who could rival him in that.

It has been said that it would have been best for the Conservatives to lose the 1992 election. Perhaps the same is true of Labour in 2010. I can’t see them turning it around now. If they do win in 2010, it will be an unhappy five years for them, and they may end up at the end of the five years imploding as the Conservatives did in 1997.

He will hold out till 2010 and then lose the election and be replaced as Labour Leader.

He just dosn’t seem to care that he lost hugely at the Locals and then saw a huge 14,000 swing to Tory in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

I’m still of the belief that the guy can’t last until the end of the normal election cycle, but it looks unlikely milliband will plunge the dagger in during the next month, so I lose :(. Could it even be Alistair darling? given his sudden outburst about the economy: … airdarling

If you were milliband why would you?

Labour are going to loose the next election, milliband knows this, there is no reason to assume command of a sinking ship. If he is smart he can let Gordon loose. Let an old timer like Straw take over and soak up the bile, then assume command after. He will still be young enough, but rushing in too soon and he will only do a Hague.

yes this is true. But then the whole labour party astounds me in how they act. Mandelson is back today. I mean… seriously? they think this is a GOOD move to help re-election?